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タイトル
和文: 
英文:The use of along-track central pressure and movement speed in similar typhoon identification for rainfall prediction 
著者
和文: HOKSON Jose Angelo Arocena, 鼎 信次郎.  
英文: Jose Angelo HOKSON, Shinjiro KANAE.  
言語 English 
掲載誌/書名
和文: 
英文:Journal of JSCE Special Issue (Hydraulic Engineering)Paper 
巻, 号, ページ 12    2    ID: 23-16036
出版年月 2024年6月8日 
出版者
和文: 
英文:Japan Society of Civil Engineers 
会議名称
和文: 
英文: 
開催地
和文: 
英文: 
公式リンク https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/journalofjsce/12/2/12_23-16036/_article/-char/ja/
 
DOI https://doi.org/10.2208/journalofjsce.23-16036
アブストラクト In the statistical prediction of typhoon-induced rainfall, Fuzzy C Means (FCM) has been widely utilized to identify similar typhoons based on track positions (latitude and longitude). However, despite the potential impact of additional variables on rainfall distribution (e.g., low central pressure and slow movement speed resulting in high mean rainfall), their inclusion in similar typhoon identification using FCM has been largely unexplored. This is particularly relevant given the increasing strength and slowing down of typhoons due to climate change. To address this gap, we conducted a study incorporating these additional variables alongside track positions and evaluated their performance using various statistical measures. Our findings indicate that including central pressure and/or movement speed has little to no impact on the accuracy of rainfall prediction. The statistical measure values do not directly point to the direction of improvement or degradation of accuracy. As we confront the challenges of climate change, new and improved techniques will be necessary for accurate rainfall predictions.

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